UEFA Nations League: State of play for finals, promotion and relegation
There are now just two rounds of games left in the UEFA Nations League, and the picture is becoming clearer about who will take part in the finals next June, as well as which nations will be promoted and relegated.
You can read a full explainer for the UEFA Nations League here.
- The group winners of League A go to the Nations League finals in June 2019
- The group winners of Leagues B, C and D are promoted
- The bottom teams in the groups of Leagues A and B are relegated
- The fourth-placed teams, and the worst-performing third-placed team in the groups of League C are relegated. Points against the team in fourth-place in the groups in League C are removed to calculate the worst-performing third-placed team, as Group 1 only has three teams.
- Final positions in the Nations League will also decided draw pots for Euro 2020 qualifying as noted
This is what is still at stake in November's final fixtures.
Qualified for Nations League finals: 4 TBC
Relegated: Iceland, Poland, 2 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 1: Belgium, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland, 4 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 2: Iceland, 1 TBC
France are in control of the group and will finish top if they avoid defeat away to Netherlands on Friday.
Netherlands must win both their remaining games to guarantee reaching the finals, the second being away to Germany on Monday. However, if Netherlands beat France by two goals, or a one-goal margin of 1-0 or 2-1, a draw in Germany would see the Dutch win the group. If Netherlands beat France by a one-goal margin of 3-2 or higher-scoring, the Dutch must beat Germany to top the group.
Germany now cannot win the group and reach the finals, and will be relegated to League B if Netherlands win at home to France. If the Dutch draw with France, Germany will have to beat Netherlands by four goals to stay up due to the head to head. If the Dutch lose to France, Germany will avoid relegation with any win over Netherlands, sending the Dutch to League B.
Belgium must avoid defeat away to Switzerland on Sunday, or lose by a one-goal margin of 3-2 or higher-scoring, to qualify for the UEFA Nations League finals.
Switzerland must win 1-0, 2-1 or by two goals at home to Belgium to top the group.
Iceland have been relegated.
Portugal are very much in charge of this group, needing a draw from their trip to Italy on Saturday to secure a place in the finals. Even if they lose in Milan, they will get a second chance and would be guaranteed to finish top if they win at home to Poland on Tuesday. The winners of this group will also host the finals next June.
Italy must win at home to Portugal and then hope Portugal lose at home Poland to be sure of qualifying. But if Italy beat Portugal by two goals, then Italy would top the group if Portugal draw or lose against Poland.
Poland have been relegated.
Spain can only top the group if England vs. Croatia is a draw on Sunday.
England will win the group with a victory at home to Croatia. However, they will be relegated by a scoring draw or if they lose.
Croatia must win away to England to reach the UEFA Nations League finals. If Croatia draw 0-0 they will be relegated. A scoring draw saves them from the drop to League B at England's expense.
England's Nations League fate. #ENGUSA— Dale Johnson (@DaleJohnsonESPN) November 15, 2018
England beat Croatia
1. England, 2. Spain, 3. Croatia
1. Spain, 2. England, 3. Croatia
1. Spain, 2. Croatia, 3. England
Croatia beat England
1. Croatia, 2. Spain, 3. England
Promoted (and minimum Euro 2020 playoff): Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, 2 TBC
Relegated: Northern Ireland, 3 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 2: Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Ukraine, Wales, 3 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 3: Northern Ireland, 3 TBC
Ukraine have already secured promotion.
Czech Republic need a point at home to Slovakia on Monday to avoid relegation.
Slovakia will have to win away to Czech Republic on Monday to stay up. If they lose at home to Ukraine on Friday, then it is likely they would need to beat the Czechs by two goals to avoid the drop to League C.
Russia are guaranteed pot 2 in the Euro 2020 qualifying draw and will win the group if Sweden fail to win in Turkey on Saturday. If Sweden beat Turkey, Russia must avoid defeat to the Swedes on Tuesday.
Turkey cannot win the group and will definitely be relegated if they lose to Sweden on Saturday.
Sweden will definitely avoid relegation by beating Turkey and top the group if they win both their remaining games.
Bosnia and Herzegovina have won the group, with Austria in second and Northern Ireland relegated.
Wales will win the group if they beat Denmark at home on Friday. If Wales draw with Denmark, they have to hope Denmark do not beat Republic of Ireland on Monday. If Wales lose to Denmark they cannot win the group.
Denmark will secure the group with a win in Wales. If Denmark fail to win in Wales, top spot would still be secure by victory over Ireland.
Republic of Ireland cannot win the group and will be relegated unless Denmark lose in Wales. That would allow them the chance to stay up with a win vs. Denmark.
Promoted (and minimum Euro 2020 playoff): Finland, 3 TBC
Relegated: Estonia, 3 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 3: Finland, 5 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 4: Lithuania, Slovenia, Estonia, 5 TBC
Israel need a point away to Scotland on Tuesday to win the group, and could still finish first even if they lose that game.
Scotland definitely have to win at home Israel on Tuesday. A draw or win in Albania and victory at home to Israel would secure first place. However, the Scots would still be in contention even if they lost away to Albania on Saturday. If Albania beat Scotland, and Scotland beat Israel, the group will be decided on goal difference, goals scored, or even away record.
Albania only have a slim chance of being promoted. They must beat Scotland by at least four goals and then hope Scotland beat Israel (by no more than three goals) to finish top on goal difference. If Albania fail to beat Scotland they will definitely finish bottom and in danger of being one of the worst-ranked third-placed teams for relegation.
All other groups have four teams in and have two full rounds of games still to be played.
Finland have won promotion and at least a Euro 2020 qualifying playoff, while Estonia have been relegated.
Norway (a-Slovenia, a-Cyprus) are top of the group ahead of Bulgaria (a-Cyprus, h-Slovenia) on goal difference, and they have played each other twice. It's going to go to the wire, but both Norway's games are away. Cyprus have slim hope five points further back and would need to win both games to be in contention. Slovenia need to claim at least four points from their remaining two games to avoid relegation.
Serbia and Montenegro are separated by just a point, with the two teams meeting in Belgrade on Saturday. But Romania (home to Lithuania and away to Montenegro) are only a point further back, so any of the three could win the group -- though Montenegro appear to have the tougher fixtures (away to Serbia and home to Romania). Two home games for Serbia (Montenegro, Lithuania) suggests they are hot favourites. Lithuania will be relegated unless they win both of their games, even then they would need to beat Romania by more than one goal and Romania to lose to Montenegro. And that might still leave them relegated as the worst third-placed team.
Promoted (and minimum Euro 2020 playoff): Georgia, 4 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 4: 1 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 5: Luxembourg, 9 TBC
Euro 2020 qualifying draw pot 6: San Marino, 4 TBC
Georgia sealed promotion with two games to spare, and are guaranteed a Euro 2020 playoff place.
Belarus need a point away to San Marino on Sunday to book a guaranteed Euro 2020 playoff. They will also be assured of first place if Moldova vs. Luxembourg is a draw.
Luxembourg must win in Moldova and hope Belarus lose in San Marino.
Moldova need to beat Luxembourg, hope Belarus lose and they would also need a highly unlikely goal difference swing of nine with Belarus.
Kosovo are top of the group by two points, and victory in Malta on Saturday will see them promoted if second-placed Azerbaijan do not win at home to Faroe Islands. Kosovo host Azerbaijan on the final day, and if both teams win their first match it's set up for a winner-takes-all showdown. Faroe Islands are very much outsiders for top spot and would need to beat Azerbaijan and Malta, then hope Kosovo vs. Azerbaijan is a draw and Kosovo lose to Malta.
Macedonia are top of the group, three points clear, and will be promoted if they win in Liechtenstein on Friday as long as Gibraltar draw with Armenia. If there is a winner between Gibraltar and Armenia, then the group is guaranteed to go down to the final day.