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Jan 13, 2012

AC Milan v Inter Betting Preview

The one thing you need to know when thinking about betting on the Milan derby is that league form, or any form, is more or less irrelevant when it comes to picking a winner. Time and again over the years we have seen one side dominant in the league and yet come unstuck when faced with their neighbours.

Often it's a moment of magic that decides it; something utterly unexpected. Other times it's a mistake, a calamity that will stay with that particular player and his side's fans for months to come. But whatever happens on Sunday night, you can be certain that this The one thing you need to know when thinking about betting on the Milan derby is that league form, or any form, is more or less irrelevant when it comes to picking a winner. Time and again over the years we have seen one side dominant in the league and yet come unstuck when faced with their neighbours.

Often it's a moment of magic that decides it; something utterly unexpected. Other times it's a mistake, a calamity that will stay with that particular player and his side's fans for months to come. But whatever happens on Sunday night, you can be certain that this derby is like the one in Manchester and Liverpool, hard-fought with no quarter given whatsoever.

Milan won "home" and "away" against Inter last season. The terms are perhaps not really that important because they share the San Siro stadium of course, but the designated home team get the home changing rooms and perhaps still feel more relaxed than the team that has to use the visiting changing room instead. It's almost all psychological at this level and any edge counts.

William Hill make Milan, who lead Serie A on goal difference from Juventus, the 11/10 favourites to win this weekend's clash while Inter, eight points behind in fifth place, are 5/2 and the draw is on offer with them at 23/10.

This match comes at a time when Milan have been winning without playing well - a trait they have been famous for down the years - while Inter, after a bad start, have won their past five matches, including thumpings of Lecce and Parma, the latter match seeing Diego Milito score twice.

Inter have found their goalscoring touch at the right time while Milan are struggling for fluency in front of goal, with Zlatan Ibrahimovic the first choice but the manager flitting between the fitful Pato and the equally flighty Robinho in partnership with the Swede. But though the goals are not flowing, they are barely conceding either, with just four goals going in against them at home.

Inter have conceded just eight goals at home themselves this season and there has to be a danger that the two sides will largely cancel each other out. There has not been a goalless draw, though, in a Milan derby since 2004, which probably explains Hills' offer of 17/2 on a 0-0 this time round.

The likely return of Wesley Sneijder may force Claudio Ranieri to adjust the 4-4-2 format that has proved so successful in the Dutchman's absence. But Sneijder is so important to them that Ranieri will probably do anything to get him in the side.

Sometimes matches between these two old foes are negative, nervy affairs but for some reason I don't think that will be the case this time.

I am not suggesting it will be a 4-3, but I can see both sides scoring on the night. You can get 5/6 on that happening with William Hill and I think that might be the best bet of all, not least since it takes any correct scores or even a correct outcome out of the equation.

Inter are the side in the better form but Milan are top of the table. Something's got to give but having looked at the match from every possible angle, it really could be too close to call. If you have to go for a correct score, I would say 2-1 to Milan is the best bet, at 8/1 with Hills but you're probably better off cheering the attacks of both sides on and settling for the 5/6 on offer.

Cambers' Call

AC Milan and Inter Milan to each score in the Milan derby - 5/6 William Hill

•  Bet on all the European action at William Hill with LIVE and In-Play available too.

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