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May 8, 2014

Best Championship Sunday bets

Luis Suarez has a fantastic goal-scoring record against Norwich.
How will Luis Suarez and Liverpool fare in their last match of the season?

Heading into the final weekend of the 2013-14 Premier League season, all of the relegation positions have been decided and the title race is all but over, with Manchester City in pole position, but there are still a few betting opportunities as another campaign draws to a close.

After selecting 17 winners in 24 Prem League picks over the past few months, here's a look at the best bets for the final weekend of games.

Liverpool (home) vs. Newcastle United

Asian handicap: Liverpool -2.25 (+110) vs. Newcastle United +2.25 (-118)
3-way line: Liverpool -500 / Newcastle United +1400 / Draw +650
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 85 percent Liverpool
Total: 3.75 (Over +100, Under -110)

The brilliance of their attacking football was the reason why Liverpool challenged for the Prem title in the first place, but it was also the cause of their dramatic downfall at Crystal Palace on Monday. Leading 3-0 as the game moved into its final stages, the Reds felt the points were in the bag before the game went horribly wrong: Liverpool conceded three goals in quick succession, which meant the final score line was 3-3 and Brendan Rodgers' players were left wondering what on earth had happened.

That remarkable stalemate, followed by Manchester City's 4-0 win over Aston Villa on Wednesday, means Liverpool's title hopes have all but gone, so if they do win Sunday, it's likely to be a hollow victory. The smartest bet on the game is that it will be high-scoring; after all, Liverpool's 37 league fixtures have averaged 4.0 goals a game and their 18 home games have averaged 3.78 goals a game, so statistically alone the "Over 3.75 goals" looks a decent bet.

Throw in the fact that (1) the visitors have nothing to play for; (2) their porous defense is likely to be breached by Liverpool's magnificent strike partnership of Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge (55 league goals between them); and (3) that at the...