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Apr 24, 2014

Best Prem bets of the weekend

Will Chelsea give a full effort against Liverpool with Champions League next week?

Will this be the weekend Liverpool take a decisive step toward the Premier League title? Brendan Rodgers’ league leaders host second-place Chelsea, while at the opposite end of the table, various sides continue to play out one of the most tensely thrilling relegation battles of recent seasons.

After picking 10 winners in my last 14 Premier League picks, let’s take a look at the best value bets for this weekend’s set of fixtures.

Liverpool (home) vs. Chelsea

Asian handicap: Liverpool -1 (+120) vs. Chelsea +1 (-125)
3-way line: Liverpool -137 / Chelsea +400 / Draw +333
PickCenter public consensus money line pick: 87 percent Liverpool
Total: 3 (Over +105, Under -105)

Listen to Jose Mourinho and you would think Chelsea had given up on the Premier League, but taking the Chelsea manager at his word isn’t always the smart thing to do. After his side’s 0-0 draw against Atletico Madrid in the Champions League semifinal first leg on Tuesday night, Mourinho implied he would field a weakened lineup at Liverpool this weekend. Partly that is out of his hands -- goalkeeper Petr Cech and center back John Terry are ruled out by injuries sustained in the Spanish capital -- but even if Mourinho rotates in other areas and has prioritized the Champions League (Chelsea host Atletico in the second leg next week), are we really to believe he’ll throw away the chance to take points at Anfield given that a win would lift his team to within two points of their opponent?

Supporting the visitors on the Asian handicap is worth considering, but I prefer low goals, as Chelsea proved they can defend soundly without Cech and Terry this week...