Football
Debayan Sen 7y

ISL play-offs: Three spots, six contenders

 

The 2016 ISL league season is heading into the final lap, with the last six league games scheduled from Tuesday to Sunday. The top four teams will qualify for the playoffs, and the separation criteria for teams on the points table is not as straightforward as you might imagine.

As per the competition format of the league rules, the teams are separated first by points obtained, then by most number of points obtained in their head-to-head matches.

If they still can't be separated, then the goal difference from the league matches between the two, and then by most goals scored. If all these criteria still cannot separate two or more teams, only then will the goal difference across all league matches be taken into account. If all is even, then the team that have scored more goals will go through, and their fair play ranking will be used if it is still even.

The last option would be the draw of lots.

In theory, only two teams are fully aware of their fate -- Mumbai City FC are through to the last four for the first time, and 2015 runners-up FC Goa will miss out going that far for the first time in three seasons. However, there are some clear patterns about all teams that have emerged already.

Done and dusted

While Mumbai City and Goa are aware of where they stand for the week after December 4, another team that is virtually through to the last four is Delhi Dynamos. Their thumping 5-1 win over FC Goa on November 27 already established one ISL record, that of a team going through an ISL season unbeaten at home in the league stages. With two games to go, Delhi have scored 26 goals and are within sight of Goa's record 29 goals from 2015 in the league stages. If they can maintain their scoring rate of eight goals in their last two games, the new record for most goals in a season (34 by Goa in 2015) might also be within their sight.

More importantly, even defeats in their last two games could see them find a place in the top four; while a win in their next game away to NorthEast United will not just see them climb above Mumbai in the standings, but put them in pole position to finish among the top two in the table if they draw their last game away to Mumbai City. The teams finishing one and two will have the added advantage of playing their home leg second in the playoffs.

Genuine contenders

There are three clubs that are fighting for what could be potentially two places, but NorthEast United (15 points from 12 matches) are slightly better placed than both Atletico de Kolkata and Kerala Blasters (both at 18 points from 12 matches) since the latter face each other in the first match of the new week. Assuming one of them wins, NorthEast might have a better idea of what exactly to do, with a match at home the following day against Delhi Dynamos. If they beat Delhi, they not only make Delhi's last match against Mumbai a potential must-win, but then they will go into the final league match away to Kerala Blasters in complete control of their fate.

Atletico de Kolkata, however, must be considered one of the favourites, playing at home to Kerala and Pune, both of whom are also fighting with them for a spot in the last four. If they win both, Atletico de Kolkata might even end up topping the points table!

Slim mathematical opportunity

FC Pune City and Chennaiyin FC could go into a dead-heat with each other, and up to three other teams, for one available spot, if there's a result between Atletico de Kolkata and Kerala Blasters, and other results drop in their favour. Pune will need to beat Kolkata in their last match -- where Antonio Habas will return to the city where he would normally have occupied the home team's bench during the past two seasons -- while Chennaiyin will travel to Goa in a virtual rematch of the 2015 final. Both teams need to win their last games by substantial margins, in which case, goal difference could come into play in determining the fourth and final semi-finalist.

There's a good chance three of the four semi-finalists will be identified by the time the first two matches of the last week are over. The fight for the last of the playoff spots might well go down to the final whistle on December 4 in Kochi, similar to the first season when two matches in Kolkata and Guwahati were to determine the fate of six teams on the final day of the league.

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