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Bengaluru FC eye progress against Maziya

Bengaluru FC and Mohun Bagan will be playing their final AFC Cup Group E matches on May 31, though the fates of both teams are virtually sealed going into the final match day.

Bengaluru, finalists in the 2016 edition of the tournament, have a chance of advancing to the inter-zonal play-off semi-finals should they win their match against group-toppers Maziya of Maldives, but Bagan can at best hope for a second-place finish, as they travel away to Dhaka Abahani in Bangladesh.

Here's what could determine the fate of this contest.

Who are they up against?

Maziya are the reigning league champions of Maldives, and have lived up to that billing by logging four wins in their first five matches of the AFC Cup group thus far. They have done the double over Bagan, beating the Indian club 1-0 in Kolkata and then 5-2 in Male. The win in Kolkata was the first by a Maldivian club against an Indian side since Club Valencia beat Mahindra United 4-2 in 2003.

Each of Maziya's wins has been inspired by striker Mohamed Umair, who has been outstanding as a constant threat for opposition defences. Maziya's four foreign players - Kyrgyz goalkeeper Pavel Matiash, defenders Milos Kovacevic from Montenegro and Romania's Andrei Cordos, and winger Aleksandar Rakic from Serbia have all pulled their weight through a campaign where Maziya have scored 10 goals and conceded only three.

What do Bengaluru need to do?

The equation facing Bengaluru and their opponents isn't dissimilar to what happened exactly two years ago, when Bengaluru hosted Bagan in the last match of the I-League on May 31, 2015. Bagan needed just a draw, whereas Bengaluru needed to win to take the top spot in the group.

In this case, Maziya are on 12 points already, with Bengaluru on nine, but the advantage Bengaluru have despite their poor goal difference (six scored and six conceded) is that the first differentiating factor will be the head-to-head record between the two teams.

When the two teams met in Male on April 4, a John Johnson winner in injury time had given Bengaluru a 1-0 away win, and Maziya their only defeat of the campaign thus far. The score line will not matter on Wednesday, but Maziya will know that they can survive Bengaluru pressure and get the job done.

Who are the key players to watch out for?

Bengaluru are coming off a Federation Cup win in Cuttack that was claimed on the back of a couple of sensational strikes by CK Vineeth, giving them their second win in six matches this year against Bagan. The campaign, however, claimed Sunil Chhetri and Udanta Singh as victims of injuries, and the two players who like to bomb down the wings are unlikely to feature against Maziya.

Coach Albert Roca might stick to his 3-4-3 formation, though, which will place great emphasis on Eugeneson Lyngdoh to step up to the plate both in open play as well as from set-pieces. Cameron Watson missed the Federation Cup final through suspension, but should return to partner Lyngdoh at the centre of midfield.

Bengaluru's defensive organisation will have to be strong, and Johnson and Juan Antonio must lead a strong backline and keep Maziya pegged back on their side of the pitch.

Injuries to some key players aside, Bengaluru will not be missing any players through suspension, though neither will their opponents. All of that should make for a tight contest that could be decided in the last few minutes of the game, just like the first leg in Male.

What is that one factor that could determine the outcome?

2017 has already been the wettest May in about 60 years in the city of Bengaluru, and a downpour on Wednesday would not come as a surprise.

Rain is a tricky proposition for defenders, as the behaviour of the ball after bouncing cannot be predicted as easily. The ball also tends to move at variable speeds, making accurate passing a challenge.

The team which can rise above these potential challenges could emerge with the correct score for themselves. Again, the advantage lies with Maziya as their Macedonian coach Marjan Sekulovski can hope to set up a defensive game plan and look to hurt Bengaluru on the break to try and put the game out of the home side's reach.

Where can you follow the game?

There has been no telecast of the AFC Cup group stages this year in India, but you can follow all the live updates on our live blog on ESPN.