Previous
FK Qarabag
St Etienne
4:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Apollon Limassol
FC Zürich
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Borussia Monchengladbach
Villarreal
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Club Brugge
Torino
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
FC Copenhagen
HJK Helsinki
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Besiktas
Asteras Tripolis
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
FK Partizan Belgrade
Tottenham Hotspur
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Dinamo Zagreb
FK Astra Giurgiu
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
SV Salzburg
Celtic
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Panathinaikos
Dinamo Moscow
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
PSV Eindhoven
Estoril
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk
Internazionale
5:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Sevilla FC
Feyenoord Rotterdam
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Standard Liege
Rijeka
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Everton
VfL Wolfsburg
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Lille
Krasnodar
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
BSC Young Boys
Slovan Bratislava
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Napoli
Sparta Prague
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Rio Ave
Dynamo Kiev
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Steaua Bucuresti
AaB
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Fiorentina
Guingamp
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
PAOK Salonika
Dinamo Minsk
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Legia Warsaw
KSC Lokeren
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Metalist Kharkiv
Trabzonspor
7:05 PM GMT
Game Details
Sporting Kansas City
Saprissa
12:00 AM GMT
Game Details
Metapan
Herediano
2:00 AM GMT
Game Details
Emelec
River Plate
12:15 AM GMT
Leg 2Aggregate: 0 - 0
Game Details
Boca Juniors
Rosario Central
12:15 AM GMT
Leg 2Aggregate: 1 - 1
Game Details
Racing Club
Argentinos Juniors
9:00 PM GMT
Game Details
Temperley
Unión de Santa Fe
12:00 AM GMT
Game Details
Corinthians
Chapecoense AF
10:30 PM GMT
Game Details
Goiás EC
Atlético MG
10:30 PM GMT
Game Details
Gremio
Santos FC
11:30 PM GMT
Game Details
Deportes Quindío
America Cali
12:30 AM GMT
Leg 2Aggregate: 1 - 0
Game Details
Cortuluá
Valledupar F.C.
1:00 AM GMT
Leg 2Aggregate: 1 - 3
Game Details
Next
Jun 22, 2014

How the U.S. can qualify for the last 16

ESPN FC's Alexi Lalas and Steve McManaman lament the costly late goal from Portugal and discuss how the U.S. can regroup for Germany on Thursday.

Following the thrilling 2-2 draw between the U.S. and Portugal, here are the scenarios that would allow the U.S. to clinch a spot in the round of 16. 

Remaining fixtures:
- Thursday U.S. vs. Germany (ESPN, noon ET); Portugal vs. Ghana (ESPN2, noon ET)

Simplest Scenarios 

- Germany: Advance with win/draw vs. USA
- United States: Advance with win/draw vs. GER
- Portugal: Advance with win vs. GHA AND GER/USA do not tie, IF POR wins tiebreak with loser (see below)
- Ghana: Advance with win vs. POR AND GER/USA do not tie, IF GHA wins tiebreak with loser (see below)

U.S. Scenarios

- Win/draw vs. Germany
- Loss and Portugal-Ghana draw
- Loss and win tiebreaker vs. Portugal-Ghana winner

Updated Soccer Power Index odds to advance:
(All the group percentages available at fivethirtyeight.com)

- Germany: 99.7 percent
- United States: 75.8 percent
- Ghana: 19.1 percent
- Portugal: 5.4 percent

Tiebreakers

If the United States loses, Ghana would qualify instead if either game is decided by a margin of two goals or more. If the U.S. loses by one goal, Ghana would need to win by two goals or be involved in a higher-scoring one-goal win. For instance, a 1-0 scoreline in both games would put the United States through on head-to-head. So, if the U.S. loses 1-0, then Ghana must win 2-1 to qualify on goals scored.

U.S.-Ghana head-to-head tiebreaker needed: If the U.S. loses and Ghana wins by the exact same one-goal score, then they would be tied on points, goal difference and goals scored. The U.S. would then advance on the head-to-head tiebreaker. ESPN's Soccer Power Index calculates that there is a 1.82 percent chance this happens.

To surpass the U.S., Portugal will need a goal-difference swing of five (head-to-head is level). So for instance, Portugal would need to win 3-0 and U.S. lose 2-0, among other equivalent scorelines. The teams will draw lots if goal difference is identical (this would happen with a 3-0 U.S. defeat and a 2-0 Portugal win, for example).

Drawing of lots needed to break U.S.-Portugal tie: With any combination of Germany and Portugal wins in which Portugal outscores the U.S. by exactly two and gives up exactly three fewer goals, drawing of lots would be necessary to determine whether Portugal or the U.S. advances. ESPN's Soccer Power Index calculates that there is a 1.09 percent chance of this happening.

History

If the United States and Germany draw on Thursday, both will advance to the knockout stage regardless of Ghana and Portugal's result. There have already been questions about how much attacking will occur in that match, as there's precedent for German involvement in a mutually-assured advancement situation.

In 1982, West Germany was in a group with Algeria, Austria and Chile. A 3-2 Algeria win in its last match meant Algeria would be the first team to reach the knockout stage unless West Germany beat Austria by one or two goals -- in which case both European sides would advance. After Germany's Horst Hrubesch put the Germans in front in the 10th minute, both teams realized they were through if results held and basically stopped playing for the final 80 minutes (0 shots, barely any tackles, etc.).

The incident is what prompted FIFA to change the format of the final match of the group stage. All four teams in a group now play their third match simultaneously to avoid this scenario.

Comments

Use a Facebook account to add a comment, subject to Facebook's Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. Your Facebook name, photo & other personal information you make public on Facebook will appear with your comment, and may be used on ESPN's media platforms. Learn more.