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Soccer Power Index: Daily update

Explanation of SPI | FiveThirtyEight's World Cup Predictions

ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) is a rating system which uses historical data on both the international and club level to predict the outcome of a match. The algorithm uses several years of data, taking into account goals scored and allowed, quality of the lineup fielded, and the location of the match. In addition, SPI weights recent matches more heavily, and also takes into account the importance of the match, so a World Cup match counts much more than a Friendly.

Today's match: 

Argentina 0 (4) - Netherlands 0 (2), Argentina advances on penalty kicks

Saturday's match: 

Brazil vs Netherlands, 4 PM ET ESPN

Sunday's match:

Germany vs Argentina, 3 PM ET ABC

Percentages for a team to advance through Finals: 

Team Final Pct Champ Pct SPI Rank
Germany 100.0% 61.0% 1
Argentina 100.0% 39.0% 2

Soccer Power Index ratings for all participating countries in the 2014 World Cup for July 9. 

Rank Team Off Rating Def Rating Rating
1 Germany 3.39 0.58 91.4
2 Argentina 2.71 0.41 89.6
3 Colombia 2.60 0.40 89.1
4 Brazil 3.01 0.70 88.6
5 France 2.58 0.51 87.9
6 Netherlands 2.71 0.63 87.4
7 Spain 2.50 0.63 86.1
8 Chile 2.48 0.62 86.1
9 Belgium 1.99 0.56 83.0
10 England 2.05 0.76 81.0
11 Uruguay 2.11 0.81 80.9
12 Bosnia-Herzegovina 2.29 0.98 80.3
13 Portugal 2.18 0.90 80.3
14 Ecuador 1.80 0.65 80.2
15 Switzerland 2.18 0.96 79.6
16 Mexico 1.62 0.56 79.6
17 Ghana 2.03 0.90 78.9
19 USA 2.02 0.92 78.5
20 Italy 1.82 0.79 78.4
21 Costa Rica 1.43 0.51 78.4
22 Ivory Coast 1.43 0.51 78.3
24 Croatia 2.02 0.99 77.6
25 Russia 1.45 0.64 76.6
27 Nigeria 1.65 0.82 76.2
28 Algeria 2.05 1.11 76.2
30 Greece 1.19 0.56 74.8
34 Japan 2.04 1.33 73.0
40 Iran 1.12 0.83 69.4
46 Cameroon 1.46 1.18 68.2
50 Australia 1.70 1.44 67.2
57 Honduras 1.44 1.32 65.5
59 South Korea 1.52 1.41 65.3

Off Rating: Number of goals a team would be expected to score against a league-average team at a neutral site.

Def Rating: Number of goals a team would be expected to allow against a league-average team at a neutral site.

Changes from yesterday:

  • Germany 1 (was 4) 
  • Brazil 4 (1)
  • Spain 7 (8)
  • Chile 8 (7)
  • Portugal 13 (15)
  • Ecuador 14 (13)
  • Switzerland 15 (16)
  • Mexico 16 (14)
  • Ghana 17 (20)
  • USA 19 (22)
  • Italy 20 (19)
  • Costa Rica 21 (18)
  • Ivory Coast 22 (21)
  • Iran 40 (41)
  • Cameroon 46 (45)
  • Australia 50 (49)
  • Honduras 57 (56)
  • South Korea 59 (60)

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