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4 days ago

Soccer Power Index: Daily update

Explanation of SPI | FiveThirtyEight's World Cup Predictions

ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI) is a rating system which uses historical data on both the international and club level to predict the outcome of a match. The algorithm uses several years of data, taking into account goals scored and allowed, quality of the lineup fielded, and the location of the match. In addition, SPI weights recent matches more heavily, and also takes into account the importance of the match, so a World Cup match counts much more than a Friendly.

Soccer Power Index Top 25 for July 24. 

Rank Team Off Rating Def Rating Rating
1 Germany 3.29 0.54 91.3
2 Netherlands 2.73 0.47 89.1
3 Colombia 2.59 0.40 89.0
4 Argentina 2.42 0.33 88.7
5 France 2.58 0.51 87.9
6 Brazil 2.87 0.75 87.3
7 Spain 2.51 0.62 86.3
8 Chile 2.49 0.62 86.1
9 Belgium 1.99 0.57 83.0
10 England 2.05 0.76 81.1
11 Uruguay 2.11 0.81 80.9
12 Ecuador 1.81 0.65 80.3
13 Bosnia-Herzegovina 2.31 0.99 80.3
14 Portugal 2.19 0.91 80.2
15 Mexico 1.63 0.57 79.6
16 Switzerland 2.19 0.96 79.6
17 Ghana 2.05 0.91 79.0
18 Serbia 1.82 0.78 78.6
19 Costa Rica 1.44 0.51 78.5
20 USA 2.02 0.93 78.5
21 Italy 1.83 0.79 78.5
22 Ivory Coast 2.24 1.10 78.3
23 Ukraine 1.67 0.70 78.2
24 Croatia 2.00 0.99 77.4
25 Russia 1.45 0.64 76.6



Off Rating: Number of goals a team would be expected to score against a league-average team at a neutral site.

Def Rating: Number of goals a team would be expected to allow against a league-average team at a neutral site.

Changes from yesterday:

NONE

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