Whatever happens this week against Estonia and Lithuania in qualifying matches, England are going to the European Championships. And whatever happens on the pitch, we probably know the bulk of the squad already.
But who are the rank outsiders who might make a late break for inclusion? Who are England's wildcards? ESPN FC asked Iain Macintosh to look down manager Roy Hodgson's long list.
Once considered England's right-back for the coming decade, Micah Richards won only 13 caps and hasn't played...
The final week of UEFA Euro 2016 qualifying begins on Thursday, and 15 berths will be claimed by Oct. 13.
Though only five berths have been officially claimed (Austria, Czech Republic, England and Iceland, plus host France), most of the top teams have nearly sewn up their spots. That means the remaining drama lies largely in teams jockeying between second place (and an automatic berth) and third place (and a playoff), or among countries fighting simply to make the playoffs.
Remember that the top two teams in each of the nine groups qualify directly, along with the best of the nine third-place teams. The other eight third-place teams enter home-and-home playoffs for the final four places in France.
Here's how ESPN's Soccer Power Index forecasts the final games of group play, with odds for qualifying either directly or for the playoffs. All percentages are based on 10,000 SPI simulations. (For more information on SPI, see Nate Silver's explainers here, here and here.)
The nine groups are divided into three categories based on the remaining drama expected:
Since then, Giroud was sent off in Arsenal's Champions League loss at Dinamo Zagreb, and has had to be content with a bit-part role in the league with Gunners boss Arsene Wenger currently preferring Theo Walcott...