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 By David Amoyal

Rumours rated: Alisson to Liverpool? Mandzukic to Man United? Mahrez or Jorginho to Man City?

With the transfer window open, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely the rumoured moves are to take place.

Alisson to Liverpool: 35 percent

Loris Karius' shocking performance in the Champions League final has brought more urgency to the Reds' pursuit of a goalkeeper, and the excellent relationship between their ownership group and Roma makes this a logical match. But after a substantial financial return from their own run in the Champions League, for the first time in years, Roma won't be forced to sell a player by June 30 to meet their Financial Fair Play parameters. However, should the Brazilian keeper shine at the World Cup, it's not out of the question that Roma would consider a massive offer later this summer.

Mario Mandzukic to Manchester United: 45 percent

After three seasons in Serie A, the Croatian striker is pondering his next move. Although Massimiliano Allegri's confirmation that he's staying at Juventus leaves the door open for a return at the club, Mandzukic is intrigued by the possibility of playing in the Premier League, as well as in his natural role as a central striker. Manchester United and the Serie A champions have a good working relationship and have been in talks recently for Matteo Darmian as well, and considering that Juventus' policy is not to stand in the way of a player who wants to leave, it will ultimately come down to Mandzukic's decision.

Riyad Mahrez to Manchester City: 55 percent

One of the names on Pep Guardiola's list is Leicester's Riyad Mahrez. Despite the Algerian handing in a transfer request in January and interest from City, talks between the two clubs failed to yield a deal. But now the situation could be different. The Foxes set their asking price for the winger at around £70 million, but they could also be interested in a deal involving City forward Patrick Roberts, who spent the past 18 months on loan to Celtic.

Leandro Paredes to Napoli: 30 percent
Jorginho to Manchester City: 45 percent

Carlo Ancelotti's appointment could bring a significant change to Napoli's midfield. The Italian club previously turned down a substantial bid from Manchester City for Jorginho, but considering he was one of Maurizio Sarri's key players, it's not out of the question that they would lower their demands if it meant being able to bring a player better suited to their new manager's style. Zenit St. Petersburg's Paredes is at the top of this list, along with Real Betis' Fabian Ruiz.

Robert Lewandowski to Chelsea: 10 percent

While there's still uncertainty with the Blues' coaching position, and with reports of Alvaro Morata's interest in returning to Serie A, it's no surprise to see them linked to strikers. While Lewandowski has expressed dissatisfaction with his situation at Bayern Munich, the German club hasn't shown willingness to let him leave in the past. Considering that Real Madrid are also interested in the striker, it's unlikely that Chelsea would be willing to spend the price necessary to acquire him should he be available.

Mauro Icardi to Chelsea & Alvaro Morata to Inter: 10 percent

Even though Inter's captain is looking for a raise after leading Serie A in scoring and the Spanish striker hasn't hidden his desire to return to Italy, the odds of a swap taking place are rather slim. Icardi showed his commitment to the club by greeting Lautaro Martinez at the airport in Milan last week and is likely to agree to an extension that will increase the amount of his current exit clause of €110 million. Morata likely would be reluctant to agree to join Inter after turning down Milan last summer out of loyalty to Juventus, his former club and preferred future destination.

Stephan Lichtsteiner to Arsenal: 55 percent

Arsenal are focused on bolstering Unai Emery's defense in the early stages of the transfer window. In addition to Borussia Dortmund's Sokratis Papastathopoulos, the Gunners could close the deal with the now former Juventus right-back before the World Cup. After failing to reach an agreement with Dortmund and Marseille, Lichtsteiner is intrigued by the possibility of joining Arsenal on a free transfer and serving as a mentor to Hector Bellerin.

Mousa Dembele to Serie A: 35 percent

The Belgian midfielder has numerous suitors in Italy, and the fact that his contract with Spurs expires in 2019 gives those teams hope that they'll be able to land him this summer. Ancelotti has identified him as a potential replacement for Jorginho, while Inter have rekindled their interest in him after qualifying for the Champions League. Dembele's current wages are in line with players such as Ivan Perisic and Lorenzo Insigne, and with just one year on his deal, he has quite a bit of leverage in deciding where he'll play next season.

Piotr Zielinski to Chelsea: 20 percent

The Polish midfielder would be a target for the Blues should they hire his now-former manager Sarri. But though Napoli might be willing to sacrifice Jorginho for the right price, Ancelotti wants to ensure that Zielinski is part of his midfield moving forward. As a result, the Italian club is working on an improved contract for the player that will eliminate his current exit clause. Once Chelsea address their coaching situation, they could also target Eised Hysaj, Kalidou Koulibaly and Dries Mertens later on this summer.

Radja Nainggolan to Inter: 10 percent

The Nerazzurri's qualification to the Champions League has increased their ambition on the transfer market, and considering Luciano Spalletti's strong bond with the Belgian midfielder, it's no surprise to see rumors about a reunion. But considering that Nainggolan turned down rich offers from abroad in previous summers out of loyalty to Roma, it's hard to see him joining another Serie A team, especially when you consider Inter's issues with Financial Fair Play.

David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.

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