Rumours rated: Aubameyang to Arsenal, Belotti to replace Griezmann
With the transfer window open, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely the rumoured moves are to take place.
Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang to Arsenal: 45 percent
The Gabonese forward was recently dropped from Borussia Dortmund's squad for the third time in the past 14 months for disciplinary reasons. Aubameyang appears to be on his way out, and at this point, he has two options: move to China after accepting a rich offer from either Guangzhou Evergrande or Beijing Guoan, or head to Arsenal to help replace Alexis Sanchez. At the moment, the Gunners are fairly confident that they can sign Aubameyang regardless of whether Olivier Giroud is included in the deal.
Andrea Belotti to Atletico Madrid in summer: 35 percent
Last summer's transfer ban blocked the Torino striker's move to Diego Simeone's squad. But despite Diego Costa's arrival, Los Colchoneros have not stopped monitoring Belotti, a player they still view as an ideal replacement for Antoine Griezmann, who is expected to leave in the summer. While Torino were able to stand firm in their request for the full €100 million exit clause to keep Belotti last year, now they'll likely have to lower their demands since Belotti has struggled with injuries this season and won't have an opportunity to showcase his talents at the World Cup.
Suso to Liverpool: 10 percent
While the Reds are on the lookout for Philippe Coutinho's potential replacement, bringing back former player Suso during the January window will be next to impossible. For one, the Spanish winger's €40m exit clause is valid only in the summer, and in a recent post on social media, Suso reaffirmed his desire to stay with Milan after recently signing a contract extension.
Alisson to Liverpool: In January 10 percent, in summer 30 percent
Both Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool could use an immediate upgrade to their goalkeeper, but Alisson is expected to finish the season in Italy after Roma qualified for the knockout rounds of the Champions League. Real Madrid are also expected to join the race in the summer after Kepa Arrizabalaga's recent injuries; considering the number of suitors, Roma will demand at least €40m, the fee Man City spent to acquire Ederson, Alisson's backup on the Brazilian national team, from Benfica last summer.
Emre Can to Juventus in summer: 80 percent
While Liverpool made numerous attempts to extend the German international's expiring contract, they are now resigned to the fact that they'll lose him. Juventus have tried to accelerate his arrival in Turin to this month, but they are confident they'll at least avoid another Axel Witsel scenario after agreeing to terms with Can on a five-year deal with an annual salary of €5 million after taxes, to be completed on July 1.
Massimiliano Allegri to Chelsea in summer: 15 percent
With Antonio Conte appearing likely to leave Stamford Bridge at the end of the season, there has been a lot of speculation that Allegri would continue the club's long tradition of Italians at the helm. But after locking Allegri into an extension last summer, Juventus are determined to continue with Allegri in charge. The club's management sided with him after his dispute with Leonardo Bonucci last season, and they're working closely with Allegri on potential transfer moves for next summer.
Moise Kean to Leeds: 15 percent
Could the first millennial to score in a Serie A match take his talents to Elland Road in 2018? While Leeds are willing to raise the 18-year-old striker's current wages, he is unlikely to leave Hellas Verona before the season ends. In fact, Juventus, the club that owns Kean's rights, are very pleased with his progress under manager Fabio Pecchia and would prefer he continue to acclimate himself to Italy's top league rather than trying an experience abroad.
Radja Nainggolan to Guangzhou Evergrande: 15 percent
The Belgium international's recent suspension for breaking team rules has restarted the rumor mill on his future. While Fabio Cannavaro's club is interested in acquiring Nainggolan and Monchi might not have many more opportunities to cash in significantly on a player set to turn 30, both the club and the player want to continue their relationship despite Nainggolan's recent suspension.
Rafinha to Inter: 60 percent
After landing Lisandro Lopez from Benfica on loan, the Nerazzurri are now focused on improving Luciano Spalletti's midfield. In addition to Ramires, Inter are also working on signing versatile Brazilian Rafinha. On Tuesday, Inter's sporting director Piero Ausilio travelled to Spain to try to close the deal, and there's optimism of a positive resolution since Rafinha has already agreed personal terms and the remaining hurdle is the fee for the option to buy with Barcelona.
Manolo Gabbiadini to Bologna: 10 percent in January, 45 percent in summer
After a strong start at Southampton, the Italian striker has struggled in his second season in the Premier League and could soon be on his way back to Serie A. Gabbiadini's former club are in fact interested, and while they've explored the possibility of signing him before the January window closes, they will likely have to wait for the summer for a reunion, especially after Bologna striker Simone Verdi turned down a transfer to Napoli.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.