Rumours rated: Malcom to Man United, Kevin Trapp to Liverpool
With the January transfer window set to open, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely it is that these rumoured moves take place.
Malcom to Manchester United: 55 percent
The 20-year-old Brazil striker has been one of the breakout stars in Ligue 1 this season after scoring seven goals to go with four assists. While Paris Saint-Germain are also interested, they have to deal with Financial Fair Play parameters, which gives Manchester United a clear advantage in the short term. Considering that the Red Devils are eager to add another young talent to their front line, the deal will likely be reached in January with Malcom staying at Bordeaux on loan until the end of the season.
Leonardo Bonucci to Chelsea or Man City: 20 percent (in January), 55 percent (in summer)
Milan's disastrous start to the season is just one of the reasons why the former Juventus center-back is once again linked to the Premier League. The significant loan owed to the Elliott fund by Milan's new owners becomes much more difficult to repay without Champions League revenues and to balance the books, the rossoneri will likely have to sell one or two of their top players.
By moving Bonucci, Milan would save about €14 million a season in salary alone -- a figure few clubs could afford. While last summer the defender wanted to stay in Italy, it will be interesting to see if he will push to join Pep Guardiola, a manager tailored suited for his style, or his former mentor Antonio Conte.
Kevin Trapp to Liverpool: 40 percent
The Germany keeper appeared on his way out of France's capital even before PSG were linked to Gianluigi Donnarumma and Jan Oblak. The player's agent, Jorg Neubauer, has publicly stated that his client is eager to find a new club in January and Trapp himself has confirmed he's a fan of both the Premier League and Jurgen Klopp. Considering that Liverpool are still searching for a starting caliber keeper and PSG are looking to raise funds for Financial Fair Play, the negotiation could take off rather quickly.
Paulo Dybala to Paris Saint-Germain in January: 5 percent
It's not surprising to see the Argentina international in the transfer news headlines after being benched for a third consecutive Serie A match. PSG have been interested in Dybala dating to when he was still playing at Palermo, but a move in January is almost completely out of the question because the French club need to address Financial Fair Play parameters by first selling some players.
While Dybala is almost a lock to finish the season at Juventus, he'll be a very popular transfer target in the summer for many clubs -- not just PSG.
Jack Wilshere to Newcastle United 50 percent
While there has been plenty of speculation over the futures of Mesut Ozil and Alexi Sanchez, Arsenal has to also deal with Wilshere's expiring contract. The 25-year-old midfielder is eager to play regularly with the World Cup coming up, while Rafa Benitez' squad is also in dire need for reinforcements given their position in the bottom half of the Premier League table. In addition to Newcastle, Wilshere has also attracted interest from Marseille (the club that previously signed Dimitri Payet from the Premier League) and West Ham.
Matteo Darmian to Juventus: 20 percent
While the current Serie A champions are behind Napoli in the race for Sime Vrsaljko, they may end up getting a consolation prize with the former Torino wing-back. Juventus have been in contact with Darmian's entourage, and now that the Italy international has dropped in Jose Mourinho's pecking order, he could be returning to Italy. Darmian's contract expires in 2019 and his versatility would give Massimiliano Allegri an alternative to Mattia De Sciglio and insurance should either Alex Sandro or Kwadwo Asamaoh leave the club.
Joao Mario to Paris Saint-Germain: 45 percent
The Portugal international continues to be mentioned in transfer rumors after losing his starting job at Inter and because he isn't cup-tied in the Champions League, he's an attractive target for clubs like Manchester United and PSG.
The French club is looking for an alternative to Thiago Motta but must also deal with Financial Fair Play parameters; on the bright side they have a prize asset to sell in Javier Pastore. The Argentina international has publicly stated that he's open to a move to Inter, where he would be reunited with director Walter Sabatini, who brought him to Palermo in 2009. A deal could be reached for a loan swap with option to buy: the same formula Inter used last summer to acquire Joao Cancelo in exchange for Geoffrey Kondogbia.
Pepe Reina to Milan next summer: 40 percent
With Donnarumma very likely to leave at some point in 2018, Milan are once again focused on finding his successor. Last summer when it appeared that Donnarumma wouldn't extend his contract, Pepe Reina became one of the front runners to join the rossoneri but that move could be simply postponed to 2018. The former Liverpool keeper has an expiring contract and Milan could use more leadership on the pitch, as well as a veteran to groom highly rated prospect Alessandro Plizzari.
Iker Casillas to Major League Soccer: 55 percent
After Bastian Schweinsteiger, could the Chicago Fire sign another big-name European player and former World Cup winner? It has been widely reported that Casillas is eager to leave Porto during the January window but so far, it doesn't appear that Chicago are willing to offer him a Designated Player salary. Casillas does have an expiring contract so he could wait to see what financial offers he receives from Europe before settling for Chicago's proposal: he also has been linked to Deportivo la Coruna and Newcastle.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.