Rumours rated: Mbappe to PSG to trigger Angel Di Maria to Barcelona
With attention focusing on the summer transfer window, David Amoyal predicts how likely it is that these rumoured moves actually happen.
Kylian Mbappe to Paris Saint-Germain: 55 percent
The 18-year-old striker is determined to move to France's capital and was left out of Monaco's recent match against Metz. PSG have reportedly offered the current Ligue 1 champions €140 million plus the rights to Lucas Moura. In addition, they have also expressed interest in Fabinho, and should the versatile Brazilian player be also included the financial terms could exceed €200m.
Andrea Belotti to Monaco: 35 percent
Monaco could look to replace Mbappe with the 23-year-old Belotti. So far this summer, Torino have held firm with their demand of the full €100m within the exit clause -- turning down lower bids from AC Milan -- but after receiving considerable fees for multiple players this summer, Monaco are pondering meeting that valuation, which they could sweeten by including some young players in return. Last summer, Monaco completed a deal with Torino for centre-back Kamil Glik, who Belotti has a close relationship with.
Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona: 15 percent
Angel Di Maria to Barcelona: 40 percent
So far Liverpool have lived up to their public pledge that they won't consider any offer for their playmaker, and Barcelona's Sunday deadline to accept their bid worth over £100m has also passed. As an alternative to Coutinho, the Blaugrana are expected to rekindle negotiations for Angel Di Maria, whose playing time at Paris Saint-Germain could be further jeopardised by Kylian Mbappe's potential arrival. Signing the former Real Madrid and Manchester United winger would also have the added benefit of re-energising Lionel Messi, who is very close to Di Maria.
Jean Michael Seri to Barcelona: 60 percent
The uncertainty surrounding Andres Iniesta's future, as well as the underwhelming response to the Paulinho signing, have made the Nice midfielder a priority for Barcelona. Seri reached an agreement on a four-year contract a few days ago, and while Nice weren't too pleased that the Spanish club reached out to their player as they were getting ready for the Champions League playoff round, they are willing to negotiate a transfer fee above his €40 million exit clause that expired at the end of July.
Serge Aurier to Tottenham: 50 percent
After announcing the Davinson Sanchez signing, Spurs are now working on bringing in Kyle Walker's replacement, with the PSG right-back the most likely candidate. Tottenham reached an agreement with Aurier on personal terms last week, and according to L'Equipe, they are set to conclude the negotiations with PSG on the basis of a €25 million fee. At this point, the biggest stumbling block in the deal is the work permit issue, but Aurier's lawyer is confident he'll be able to provide the necessary documentation to obtain it.
Antonio Candreva to Chelsea: 25 percent
Joao Cancelo joining Inter Milan impacts this potential transfer in two ways: Chelsea have one less option for the right wing-back position, and Inter may consider sacrificing the former Lazio winger to raise funds to bolster another position. But odds are that Inter will employ Joao Cancelo at right-back and keep Candreva in their offensive trident, especially since their depth will be impacted by Stevan Jovetic and Gabigol's expected departures.
Shkodran Mustafi to Inter Milan: 20 percent
After Jeison Murillo's loan to Valencia, the Nerazzurri find themselves very thin at centre-back. While Inter's main target is Manchester City's Eliaquim Mangala, they have also contacted Mustafi's agent about a potential return to Serie A. Reaching a deal with Arsenal will be difficult, however, since the Gunners are looking to get most of their £35 million investment back immediately while Inter would prefer a loan deal with an option to buy. As an alternative, Marcelo Brozovic, who has been linked to Arsenal in the past, could be offered in a deal similar to the one Inter completed with Valencia involving Joao Cancelo and Geoffrey Kondogbia.
Gabigol to Sporting Lisbon 25 percent
After appearing in just 10 matches last season and failing to convince new manager Luciano Spalletti this preseason, Gabigol is looking for a fresh start. While Sporting Lisbon expressed interest in the striker, they weren't willing to pay part of his wages while other options include Benfica and Malaga. Inter are looking for the right situation for Gabigol after investing €30 million in him just one year ago, so a return to Brazil can't be excluded.
Claudio Marchisio to Milan: 5 percent
Could another Juventus star leave this summer? The recent rumors linking the Bianconeri to midfielders even after the Blaise Matuidi signing, had the domino effect of creating speculation over Marchisio's future. But the veteran has no intention of leaving his hometown club and there is no indication Milan are looking to repeat a Bonucci like deal. Rather than Marchisio, Juventus will likely sell Stefano Sturaro who has been linked to Premier League clubs as well as Atalanta and Fiorentina.
Kevin Strootman to Juventus: 15 percent
Juan Cuadrado to Roma: 30 percent
After failing to reach an agreement with Leicester City for Riyad Mahrez, Roma are considering alternatives. Should Keita Balde Diao leave Lazio to join Juventus, Cuadrado could become available in a swap deal involving Kevin Strootman. While the Dutch midfielder recently signed an extension with Roma, there are reports that indicate he's interested in joining his former teammate Miralem Pjanic in Turin. However, convincing Roma to sell another significant player this summer, especially to Serie A rivals like Juventus, is unlikely. That being said, he could still join the Giallorossi with Juve using the funds to purchase a midfielder from another club.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.