Rumours rated: Bale to Man United? Griezmann to Barca? Costa to Milan?
With attention focusing on the summer transfer window, David Amoyal predicts how likely it is that these rumoured moves actually happen.
Neymar to Paris Saint-Germain: 85 percent / Alexis Sanchez: 15 percent
Gerard Pique's recent statements on Neymar are very telling -- he publicly acknowledged that the Brazil international is seriously considering a move to PSG -- and all indications are that the record-breaking transfer will take place this week. But could PSG also sign Arsenal's Sanchez? Aside from the enormous financial commitment necessary to get both deals done, there are also other factors that make this second deal unlikely. For one, the French club invested significantly in Julian Draxler just last January, and there's also the close relationship between Neymar and Lucas Moura, who would certainly be on his way out at PSG should Sanchez also arrive.
Antoine Griezmann to Barcelona: 15 percent
To potentially replace Neymar, the Blaugrana could take advantage of an exit clause on a big-name striker. While Barcelona could certainly afford the €100 million price tag, which would be less than half of Neymar's transfer fee, it remains to be seen if Griezmann would agree to the move. The France international decided to extend his contract with Los Colchoneros after their transfer ban was upheld rather than accepting a move abroad, so it would be quite the change of heart to see him now agree to join rivals in La Liga. As an alternative to Griezmann, Barcelona are interested in Borussia Dortmund's Ousmane Dembele.
Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid: 65 percent
Gareth Bale to Manchester United: 20 percent
Despite Monaco vice president Vadim Vasilyev's public statements regarding the ongoing negotiations to extend Mbappe's contract, that there is still a lot of momentum for the young striker's transfer to Real Madrid. His arrival would further diminish Bale's playing time at Real Madrid, which was already seriously impacted by Isco's improved form at the end of last season. While the winger's agent Jonathan Barnett has dismissed the rumours of his client's potential departure from the Spanish capital, Jose Mourinho would love to bring him to Old Trafford and Zinedine Zidane has conceded one of his big-name attackers could be on his way out before the transfer window closes. However, at this time Ivan Perisic remains a more realistic option for United.
Marouane Fellaini to Galatasaray: 50 percent
Despite their stunning elimination in the Europa League, the Turkish club continue to be aggressive in the transfer market. After signing Bafetimbi Gomis and Younes Belhanda, Galatasaray have reached an agreement with Fellaini on a four-year contract with an annual salary of close to €4m a season. It is now up to Manchester United to decide if they want to let him leave, a development which could be more likely after the recent acquisition of Nemanja Matic. In addition to Fellaini, Galatasaray have also made significant progress in their pursuit of Manchester City's Fernando.
Wesley Sneijder to Nice: 20 percent
Sneijder recently left Galatasaray and, after contact with Sampdoria and the new MLS franchise Los Angeles FC, he's now being linked to Nice. Sneijder's agent vehemently denied the rumours, despite the fact that the French club have been able to afford the wages of players like Mario Balotelli and Dante in the past. As an alternative to Nice, Sneijder could return to the Netherlands or sign with the Montreal Impact -- a club that has same owner as Bologna, where he could play for the first half of next season.
Renato Sanches to Chelsea: 30 percent
Even prior to Corentin Tolisso's arrival, Sanches was clamouring for more playing time. With Nemanja Matic's sale to Manchester United completed, Chelsea have one less rival for Sanches' signature and also can offer the player the increased role he desires. The Blues however face a few hurdles, as Milan have also been in talks with the player's agent, while on Monday, Bayern manager Carlo Ancelotti stated that Sanches will stay at the club this summer.
Diego Costa to Milan: 25 percent
The feud between Antonio Conte and Costa has entered a new phase. He is determined to join Atletico Madrid, but after all the drama dating back to last January, Chelsea would prefer to send him to Milan now rather than having to wait to get rid of the Costa distraction when Atleti's transfer ban expires at beginning of the winter transfer window. Milan are looking to sign a veteran striker to pair with Andre Silva, and while they have been in contact with Chelsea as well as Costa's agent Jorge Mendes, it remains to be seen whether they can convince the player to accept a Serie A move.
Keita Balde Diao to Juventus: 45 percent
Considering their contentious relationship with Juventus, it's certainly true that Lazio would prefer to sell the talented winger abroad, but with less than a year left on his contract, Keita has considerable leverage. The former Barcelona youth team player has turned down West Ham's offer, and is pushing to sign with the current Serie A champions who have bid around €20m to sign him immediately. Unless another team can convince Keita to join them, it feels like more of a question of when rather than if Keita will join Juventus.
Ezequiel Garay to Juventus: 10 percent
While the Bianconeri lost one of the best central defenders in the world as a result of Leonardo Bonucci's transfer to Milan, they are well covered in his role. In addition to Andrea Barzagli, Giorgio Chiellini, Daniele Rugani and Medhi Benatia, Juventus also own youngster Mattia Caldara, who will play one more season at Atalanta. Rather than signing another expensive centre-back, the Serie A champions' priority is landing a starting calibre midfielder. Blaise Matuidi now is the front runner to join Max Allegri's squad.
Gylfi Sigurdsson to Everton: 55 percent
Ross Barkley's decision to turn down a contract extension with Everton should open the door for his transfer -- if the right offer arrives. In the meantime, coach Ronald Koeman has declared that they don't have to wait to sell Barkley before bringing in a replacement. Even though Swansea coach Paul Clement wants to keep Sigurdsson, the Iceland international didn't play during their recent friendly against Birmingham City.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.