Rumours rated: Fabinho to United, Ghoulam to Liverpool, Suso to Spurs?
With attention focusing on the summer transfer window, David Amoyal predicts how likely it is that these rumoured moves actually happen.
Kostas Manolas and Leandro Paredes to Zenit St. Petersburg: 75 percent
After Mohamed Salah, Roma could cash in on two more of their most appealing assets to ensure new sporting director Monchi has the resources to build the squad as he sees fit. Although Manolas has been linked to Inter and Premier League clubs and Paredes has been a target for Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund, both players will likely sign with Zenit for around €65 million. They would join Roberto Mancini, a manager who has developed a reputation as a great recruiter in the transfer market.
Suso to Tottenham: 25 percent
Although Milan have been very active acquiring new players, they have struggled to reach an agreement with the former Liverpool winger on an extension since their ownership change. Suso's current deal expires in 2019, but his performances last season have certainly warranted a raise. It also appears likely that Milan will change formations and go with two strikers by pairing Nikola Kalinic with Andre Silva up front. While Suso also has suitors in Italy, with Roma and Napoli, Milan might prefer to sell him abroad rather than reinforcing contenders for a Champions League spot.
Matteo Darmian to Juventus: 35 percent
With Dani Alves set to join Manchester City and Chelsea pushing to sign Alex Sandro, Juventus are focused on adding one or two wing-backs. Darmian could be returning to Serie A since Jose Mourinho appears open to letting him leave for the right offer. Considering that Juventus have just one non-EU slot available and are pushing to sign Douglas Costa, acquiring the Italian defender rather than Real Madrid's Danilo would leave give them more flexibility when it comes to bolstering other positions.
Fabinho to Manchester United: 45 percent
The versatile Brazilian has been linked to the Red Devils for quite some time, and now there's momentum for him to be the second Monaco player to head to the Premier League this summer, despite Paris Saint-Germain's interest. The negotiation with Monaco is well on its a way, and a deal could be reached for around €50 million. Fabinho has also publicly stated that he would be open to the transfer. It will be interesting to see if this potential move would impact Chelsea's pursuit of another Monaco player, Tiemoue Bakayoko, and if Manchester United sees Fabinho returning to the right-back position he played a few years ago.
Alex Sandro to Chelsea: 50 percent
The Blues haven't given up on signing the Brazilian left-back even after their first bid was rejected, a fact confirmed by Juventus' executive director Beppe Marotta recently -- but since then Paris Saint-Germain have also joined the race. As we have seen with Arturo Vidal and Paul Pogba, the current Serie A champions are willing to sell a star if the player pushes for the move and they receive an adequate offer. Chelsea are expected to make a new bid while Juventus could bring back Leonardo Spinazzola from his loan at Atalanta to replace him.
Raphael Guerreiro to PSG: 35 percent
Considering Maxwell's departure and the recent health issues impacting Layvin Kurzawa, it isn't surprising to see PSG linked to Guerreiro, a player they also pursued two years ago. The French club's new sporting director, Antero Henrique, has asked the defender's entourage if he's willing to play for his hometown club (despite being Portuguese, Guerreiro was born outside Paris). Borussia Dortmund values Guerreiro at around €20 million, and after one year in the Bundesliga, the left-back could be returning to Ligue 1, despite the interest of other clubs such as Manchester City.
Kylian Mbappe to Real Madrid: 30 percent
Although both Manchester United and Arsenal made attempts to sign the 18-year-old striker, his preference is to join Real Madrid. Monaco would like to keep him at least one more season by offering him an extension with a significant raise, but a recent phone call Zinedine Zidane made to Mbappe to assure him that he would receive playing time might help bring the striker to Spain this summer. Real Madrid are still in talks with Manchester United for Alvaro Morata, which would give Mbappe more space immediately, should the deal with Monaco be reached.
Luis Muriel to Sevilla: 65 percent
Despite being on the verge of signing an extension with Sampdoria, the Colombian striker will likely head to Spain this summer. Sevilla are in fact ready to pay the €28 million exit clause in Muriel's contract (which would remain unchanged if he signed the extension). They would pay part of it as a bonus tied to easily reachable goals, a solution that puts them ahead of Valencia and Lazio, who aren't willing to go quite that high.
Robert Lewandowski to Premier League: 10 percent
While the Polish striker's being the subject of transfer rumours is nothing new, the fact that he signed a very lucrative extension last December puts Bayern Munich in a position of strength. Despite the reports on Chelsea and Manchester United's interest, the odds that Lewandowski will leave are slim. Bayern Munich also issued a statement Monday to not only reiterate that the player is off the market but also threaten legal action against any club negotiating with Lewandowski's entourage.
Faouzi Ghoulam to Liverpool: 35 percent
So far, Napoli have been unable to extend the Algerian left-back's contract, which expires in 2018. Although there was interest from Milan before they signed Ricardo Rodriguez, Napoli had no intention of improving the squad of another Champions League contender. Liverpool have been interested in Ghoulam for quite some time, and though they do not appear willing to offer Alberto Moreno in the deal, they could use part of the proceeds from a sale of the Spaniard (linked to Inter) to acquire him.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.