Rumours rated: Alvaro Morata nearing deal with United, Sanchez to Bayern
With attention focusing on the summer transfer window, David Amoyal predicts how likely it is these rumoured moves actually happen.
Alvaro Morata to Manchester United: 70 percent
While Milan did all they could to sign the Real Madrid striker, they have signed Andre Silva instead, paving the way for Manchester United to close the deal for Morata. After Kylian Mbappe made it clear his preference is Real Madrid, United manager Jose Mourinho made signing Morata the priority. The fact that Mourinho can offer Morata a starting role the year before the World Cup makes the destination even more appealing for the Spain international. Real Madrid will look to get a big return on the deal to reinvest in a potential replacement.
Alexis Sanchez to Bayern Munich: 50 percent
With just one year left on his contract with Arsenal, the Chilean striker has a lot of leverage. The Gunners have offered him an extension, but Sanchez is pushing for a move. While Manchester City are also interested, sending him to a team abroad may be the best compromise for all involved. Bayern Munich are willing to offer Sanchez wages that are comparable to Robert Lewandowski's to get the deal done, and could make room on their squad by selling Douglas Costa.
Romelu Lukaku to Chelsea: 65 percent
With Diego Costa's status up in the air and United the clear favorites in the race for Morata, Chelsea are expected to bring the Belgian striker back to Stamford Bridge. Lukaku was close to joining manager Antonio Conte's squad last summer, but Everton turned down their offer at the last second. This time, however, the deal feels almost inevitable after the striker publicly acknowledged he has an agreement with Everton and he knows which direction his career will take.
Marco Verratti to Barcelona: 25 percent
On Monday, the Italian midfielder's agent, Donato Di Campli, told Paris Saint-Germain his client wants to leave for Barcelona. But in recent years PSG have shown they are simply not willing to entertain the possibility of losing their best players. We saw this first hand with two Mino Raiola clients: Blaise Matuidi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic (who left only after his contract expired). In addition, the French club was willing to bench talented youngster Adrien Rabiot for two months after he requested a transfer. Verratti still has a long-term contract with PSG, so it will be interesting to see if he's able to convince them to let him go.
Stefan de Vrij to Liverpool: 35 percent
The abrupt and rather shocking end to the Reds' pursuit of Virgil van Dijk may end up benefiting another Dutch defender who was once close to joining Manchester United. De Vrij's contract with Lazio expires in 2018, and while he has struggled with injuries in recent years, he would be a strong addition to manager Jurgen Klopp's defence. A deal could be reached if Liverpool increase their recent bid of about €20 million.
Radja Nainggolan to Manchester United: 15 percent
Nainggolan has been linked to Premier League teams for the past few summers, and with Manchester United back in the Champions League it's not surprising to see Mourinho pushing to bring Nainggolan to Old Trafford. But the Belgian midfielder is ready to become an even more significant player for Roma after Francesco Totti's retirement, and the Giallorossi are ready to reward Nainggolan with a new contract featuring wages in line with what Chelsea offered him a year ago.
Leonardo Bonucci to Chelsea: 10 percent
An ambiguous post on Instagram in which the Italian defender used the past tense when talking about Juventus and manager Massimiliano Allegri's recent extension -- Bonucci clashed with Allegri a few months ago -- has restarted the rumours about a transfer to Chelsea. But at the moment there's no indication Bonucci wants to leave Juventus. The Serie A champions would consider selling him only if he pushed for a move, and the loss in the Champions League final likely makes him feel there's unfinished business for him with the Bianconeri.
Steven N'Zonzi to Juventus: 40 percent
Juventus' difficulties in landing Corentin Tolisso (heavily linked to Bayern Munich) and Fabinho (who could join Manchester United or stay at Monaco another year) has made Sevilla's N'Zonzi the top priority of Juve for bolstering their midfield. The Serie A champions have a great relationship with Sevilla after allowing them to sign Fernando Llorente on a free transfer in the summer of 2015, so a deal is fairly likely. As an alternative, Juventus are considering Emre Can, whose contract with Liverpool expires in 2018.
Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to Liverpool: 10 percent
The 22-year-old Serbian midfielder signed an extension with Lazio a few months back, but his strong performance in Serie A have not deterred other clubs from pursuing. While contract extensions do not guarantee a player will stay, Lazio are likely to lose Keita Balde Diao, De Vrij and Lucas Biglia, who all have contracts expiring in 2018. As a result, Milinkovic-Savic is expected to stay in Italy's capital for at least another year.
Geoffrey Kondogbia to Paris Saint-Germain: 20 percent
After two uneven seasons in Serie A, the Inter midfielder could return to Ligue 1. On Monday, new PSG sporting director Antero Henrique had an introductory meeting with Inter's new management, and Kondogbia was one of the players discussed. That said, the Italian club are asking for a very high return since they invested close to €40m to acquire him from Monaco two summers ago. Paris Saint-Germain could look to complete a bigger deal with Inter for the Frenchman, which could include Grzegorz Krychowiak or Lucas Moura.
Gael Clichy to Fenerbahce: 45 percent
After signing Mathieu Valbuena, the Turkish club may sign another French player. Clichy's contract with Manchester City recently expired and the wing-back is available to sign on a free transfer. Reliable reports in France suggest Clichy will likely sign a three-year contract, a tempting proposition for a 31-year-old player who is also being pursued by Bordeaux.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website.