Rumours rated: Perisic to Man United? Tolisso to Arsenal? Morata to Milan?
With attention focusing on the summer transfer window, David Amoyal predicts how likely it is that the rumoured moves actually happen.
Ivan Perisic to Manchester United: 35 percent
Failing to qualify for the Champions League will force Inter to sell one significant player to address their Financial Fair Play issues, and with him now 28, the window to receive a significant return for Perisic is closing. The Croatian winger has been linked to Manchester United and Chelsea, two clubs that use formations that suit his skills. United appear to be in the lead but have yet to meet Inter's asking price of €40-50 million, while Chelsea could be a factor in the race, given Antonio Conte's admiration for the player.
Naby Keita and Virgil van Dijk to Liverpool: 45 percent
The Anfield side are shopping in familiar places to get ready for next season. Jurgen Klopp is keen on bringing Keita on board from the Bundesliga, and though the midfielder's current club, RB Leipzig, are stating that they'll keep their best players, they could sign RB Slazburg's Konrad Laimer as Keita's potential replacement. Klopp is also targeting Van Dijk; considering their recent deals with Southampton, Liverpool have an advantage over the competition as long as they're willing to invest significantly.
Corentin Tolisso to Arsenal: 25 percent
With Arsene Wenger set to stay, it isn't surprising to see Arsenal linked to Tolisso. Juventus were favorites to sign the Lyon midfielder prior to their formation change, but with Max Allegri able to count upon Claudio Marchisio off the bench, signing a similar but expensive player is less of a priority. Although Tolisso's preference is to join a Champions League club, he has been attracted by the Premier League. Expect him to be linked to numerous suitors -- Inter are another with interest.
Diego Costa to sign new Chelsea contract: 70 percent
The striker came close to joining Tianjin Quanjian in January but was deemed too valuable in the race to win the Premier League to leave during the season. Then, it felt like the move would be simply postponed until the summer, but after patching things up with Antonio Conte, Costa is intrigued by the possibility of making a deep Champions League run -- it also helps that Chelsea are willing to offer a lucrative, three-year extension -- and there is momentum for him to stay at Stamford Bridge.
Alvaro Morata to Milan: 35 percent
The knock-on effect of Costa's possible stay is that Chelsea have lost momentum in the race for Morata. Manchester United are also interested, but the former Juventus striker, whose fiancée is Italian, is intrigued by a return to Serie A, and he would get significant playing time with the rossoneri in the season before the World Cup. Milan are looking for an agreement with the player first before starting a formal negotiation with Real Madrid, though it remains to be seen what they can afford.
Douglas Costa to Paris Saint-Germain: 40 percent
In recent months, Costa has expressed some dissatisfaction with his current situation at Bayern Munich, and PSG could offer him playing time, a rich contract and the opportunity to compete in the Champions League. Juventus are also interested in the Brazilian international winger, but their main priority is to sign Lazio's Keita Balde, who would be cheaper and is four years younger. As such, PSG are the favourites to sign Costa.
Patrik Schick to Borussia Dortmund: 35 percent
Despite starting just 14 league games, 21-year-old Schick scored 11 goals in his first season in Italy. The striker has drawn comparisons to a young Zlatan Ibrahimovic, so it isn't surprising to see him linked to the likes of Arsenal, Tottenham and all the top teams in Italy. However, his agent would prefer him to play in the Bundesliga next season. Sampdoria would like to sell this summer but keep him on loan for another season, but Schick is keen, and Dortmund could offer him the ideal setting.
Alex Sandro to Manchester City: 10 percent
Juventus have an excellent backup left-back in Kwadwo Asamoah and own an exciting prospect in Leonardo Spinazzola, but keeping Alex Sandro is a top priority. He is expected to be offered an extension to bring his salary in line with his best-paid teammates, but Man City's interest is no surprise, given that they have been interested since his time at Porto and have significant needs at the wingbacks position. Unless he pushes to leave, though, Juventus will keep him.
Leandro Paredes to Juventus: 10 percent
The Serie A champions tried to sign Paredes in January, but the negotiation never fully took off. Juve have now restarted talks to see if there are the conditions for a deal, and Roma could be willing to sacrifice him -- even to a rival in Italy -- if it means being able to keep both Kevin Strootman and Radja Nainggolan. Paredes also had suitors in the Premier League, which means that, should he become available this summer, there will be a lot of competition to sign him.
Andrea Ranocchia to Watford: 50 percent
The once highly rated Italian defender re-established his career during a six-month stint at Hull City and could end up remaining in the Premier League. Although Swansea are also interested in his services, Ranocchia could follow manager Marco Silva to Watford, who also happen to have Italian owners. The 29-year-old is also being pursued by Olympiakos, but his preference would be to stay in England over starting a new experience in Greece.
David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.