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Transfer Rater: Ozil to Manchester United

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 By David Amoyal

Rumours rated: Donnarumma to Man Utd; De Vrij to Chelsea; Niang to Prem

Donnarumma action vs Samp 160916
AC Milan goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma could be brought to Man United as a replacement for David De Gea.

How do you separate transfer fact from fiction? With the January transfer window now open, David Amoyal looks at some of the current rumours and predicts how likely it is that the proposed moves will actually happen.

Gianluigi Donnarumma to Man United next summer: 15 percent

After Paul Pogba, Zlatan Ibrahimovic and Henrikh Mkhitaryan, will the Red Devils sign another Mino Raiola client? The Milan keeper would be the ideal replacement for David De Gea should he decide to return to Spain, but it won't be easy to convince the Italian club to sell Donnarumma. However, there could be an opening should Milan's sale continue to be delayed. Raiola has indicated that he won't negotiate a contract extension until the ownership situation is settled and he has assurances on the long-term ambitions of the club.

Thibaut Courtois to Real Madrid next summer: 30 percent

While the Galacticos are also a potential destination for Donnarumma should they fail to convince De Gea to leave Old Trafford, their most likely next starting keeper is Courtois, the Chelsea backstop. Courtois has never hid the fact that he would like to return to Spain, and with his contract expiring in 2019, next summer would be the ideal time to cash in on him at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea could pick Inter's Samir Handanovic to replace him since his agent also negotiated the deal that brought Antonio Conte to London, or go after Joe Hart, who will not stay at Torino once his loan deal expires in June.

Miralem Pjanic-Alexis Sanchez swap: 10 percent

Both players have been linked to Arsenal and Juventus, respectively, in the past, but the odds of this deal happening next summer are very low. Even though Juventus raised their own financial bar when they signed Gonzalo Higuain, Sanchez's wages would be almost impossible to fit within their parameters. Additionally, Juventus are committed to giving Marko Pjaca more playing time. Pjanic also had the opportunity to leave Serie A last summer, but he showed his commitment to joining Juventus by forfeiting the part of the exit clause that he was due.

Stefan De Vrij to Chelsea next summer: 35 percent

The talented Dutch centre-back's contract expires in 2018, so Lazio will likely look to cash in on him next summer. Despite battling injuries in the past few seasons, De Vrij has established himself as one of the best defenders in Serie A, so it's not surprising that Conte would like to bring him to Stamford Bridge. Manchester United is also a potential destination since De Vrij would be an ideal long-term partner for Eric Bailly. Lazio has never been shy about asking for big fees, even for players on expiring deals, so the race for De Vrij will be a very expensive one.

Ivan Perisic to West Ham: 10 percent

According to l'Equipe, the Hammers have identified the Croatian winger as the ideal replacement for Dimitri Payet -- but acquiring Perisic in January will be very difficult since he's a key piece in Inter's pursuit of a Champions League spot. The Italian club is looking to extend Perisic's contract to bring his salary more in line with their top players, but he could be sacrificed in the summer for a bid of around €40m, especially should the Nerazzurri feel confident they can land either Domenico Berardi or Federico Bernardeschi.

M'Baye Niang
M'Baye Niang has been linked with a host of Premier League sides and has said he would like to play in England.

M'Baye Niang to Premier League: 40 percent

A year after coming close to joining Leicester City, could the French winger finally be on his way to England? Niang was already struggling at Milan before Gerard Deulofeu's arrival on loan, and now Niang is linked to multiple Premier League clubs, including Deulofeu's former team, Everton, as well as Crystal Palace and West Ham. Genoa, who have a close relationship with Milan, are looking to bring Niang back to their squad, but the player is intrigued by the possibility of playing in the Premier League.

Ricardo Rodriguez to Marseille: 10 percent

While Inter is fairly confident they can sign the Swiss left-back next summer, Marseille is looking to beat them in the race for Rodriguez. Marseille sporting director Andoni Zubizarreta has taken steps to open negotiations to acquire him. Although Rodriguez has a reasonable exit clause of €22m, the player would have to accept the destination and his current club Wolfsburg would prefer to keep him until the end of the season. As an alternative to Rodriguez, Marseille has joined the race for Patrice Evra.

Kostas Manolas to Inter next summer: 35 percent

The Greek centre-back has been linked to numerous Premier League clubs, but he could end up staying in Italy. Inter now has the financial resources to give Manolas a substantial raise, and they are confident they can complete a deal in the summer when their financial fair play restrictions will be eased. Roma could try to sell him abroad to avoid seeing another key player join a Serie A rival a year after watching Pjanic sign with Juventus.

Andrea Ranocchia to Tottenham: 10 percent

The arrival of Roberto Gagliardini allowed Inter to move Gary Medel to centre-back, which made Ranocchia the third-string option at his position. The Italian defender has been linked to Bologna, Palermo and Sassuolo, but none of these clubs can come close to paying his wages. While Tottenham can certainly afford him, Ranocchia would have a hard time playing regularly for Mauricio Pochettino. It's more likely Ranocchia would join one of the other clubs in England who have expressed interest, such as Swansea or Hull City. Inter could also look to ship Ranocchia to Wolfsburg as a down payment for Rodriguez.

David covers transfer news for ESPN FC and works for Gianluca Di Marzio's website. Twitter: @DavidAmoyal.

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