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Juventus historically likely to qualify for Champions League final

Gonzalo Higuain scored twice for Juventus in the first leg against AS Monaco.

Juventus appear likely to qualify for the final of the UEFA Champions League for the eighth time, and the second time in the last three years, when they take a two-goal aggregate lead into the second leg of their semifinal against AS Monaco on Tuesday.

Monaco's path to the final will be historically difficult. Juventus have not lost a Champions League game this season, are unbeaten in their last 18 Champions League home games dating to April 2013 and have not conceded a goal in 621 minutes -- the last being a ninth-minute strike by Sevilla in the group stage on Nov. 22.

Another clean sheet would make Juventus only the second team ever to go more than 700 minutes without conceding a goal in the Champions League.

They have only conceded two goals in their 11 games in the competition this season, neither of which were from open play, and Monaco would need to score at least twice in order to have a chance to advance.

SIG Soccer Power Index Champions League Second Leg
Juventus has a 97 percent chance of advancing to the Champions League final, according to FiveThirtyEight's Soccer Power Index (SPI).

No team has ever advanced in the knockout stages after losing the first leg by two goals at home, and no team has overturned a 2-0 first-leg home deficit in 14 previous attempts.

Plus, no Ligue 1 team has ever won away against Juventus in European competition in 14 attempts, with those teams losing 11 of those games.

Only once this season have Juventus conceded multiple goals at home -- a 3-2 victory against Atalanta in the round of 16 of the Coppa Italia on Jan. 11. Until a 1-1 draw against Torino on Saturday, they had not conceded a goal in a home game in all competitions since March 10 against AC Milan.

Monaco have only won two of their 11 away games in the Champions League knockout stages all-time, losing seven others, and have never kept a clean sheet in those games.

SIG Most European Cup Finals
Juventus would move past Barcelona for the fourth-most appearances in the European Cup final with a victory.

They have also conceded 10 goals in their last three away games in the Champions League this season, including five against Manchester City on Feb. 21.

Should Juventus win, this year's competition may end up being reminiscent of the last time they faced Monaco in a Champions League semifinal. Juventus claimed a 6-4 aggregate victory over Monaco in 1997-98 and advanced to face Real Madrid, the eventual champions.

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