A statistical look at UEFA Champions League quarterfinal second legs
With the Champions League quarterfinals continuing on Tuesday and Wednesday, Jacob Nitzberg of ESPN Stats & Information takes a statistical look at the four matches this week, complete with Soccer Power Index (SPI) projections:
Real Madrid 0-2 Wolfsburg
With a 2-0 home win in the first leg, Wolfsburg are now favouites, according to SPI, advancing to the semifinals 59 percent of the time. SPI gives Real Madrid a 72 percent chance of scoring two or more goals, and a 47 percent chance of scoring three or more.
Wolfsburg were the first team to score multiple goals at home against Real Madrid since Valencia on Jan. 3.The German club's seven shots on target in the match were the most allowed by Los Blancos in all competitions this season, and Wolfsburg's on-target percentage of 70 was also the highest allowed by Real.
Madrid, on the other hand, took 21 shots and put just three on target (14.3 percent), their second-lowest percentage in a match this season (1-for-20 vs Villarreal on Dec. 13). It wasn't just location; Real took 13 shots from inside the penalty area and put two on target (15.4 percent), also its second-lowest percentage in a match this season.
Manchester City 2-2 Paris Saint-Germain
After securing a 2-2 draw away from home in the first leg, Manchester City is favoured to advance, according to SPI, moving on 62 percent of the time.
Man City became just the third visiting team to score multiple goals at the Parc des Princes this season, and did it without having much of the ball. City's 526 total touches and 396 pass attempts were both their fewest in a Premier League or Champions League match this season. At just 34 percent of the possession, the match was by far the club's s lowest in a Premier League or Champions League match this season, their previous low being 42 percent.
Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona
Barcelona won the first leg at home 2-1, and are a 79 percent favourite to advance to the semifinals, according to SPI.
Barcelona were able to win thanks in part to sheer volume. The Catalans took 21 shots in the first leg, their third-most in a match this season and most in a match vs. Atletico Madrid in the past six seasons. Barca took 15 of those shots in the second half, also their third-most in a match this season, and most in a match vs. Atletico in the past six seasons.
Atletico, on the other hand, mustered just seven shots, tied for fourth-fewest in a match this season. The capital club also struggled in the passing game, completing 64 percent, their third-worst in a match this season, and created just five chances, tied for fourth-fewest.
Benfica 0-1 Bayern Munich
With a 1-0 win at home in the first leg, Bayern Munich are heavy favourites to advance, moving on 90 percent of the time, according to SPI. Though the match is in Portugal, Bayern's superior offensive and defensive rating make them the SPI favourite in the second leg.
Bayern's goal came off a cross, something the German side had success with throughout the first leg. Bayern completed nine of 25 crosses (36 percent), their most crosses completed and highest completion percentage in a Champions League match this season. The Bavarians created seven chances from crosses, two more than they had in any other Champions League match this season.
There were not a lot of chances period for Benfica; their four chances created were tied for their second-fewest in a Champions League match in the past five seasons. Those resulted in one shot on target, tied for Benfica's fewest in a Champions League match in that same span.