Liverpool and Manchester City face off Sunday at Anfield in a match that will have significant implications for the Premier League title race. Liverpool currently sits atop the table with 74 points and Manchester City is in third at 70 points, though City has two games in hand. Chelsea, which also plays Sunday, is currently in second with 72 points.
According to ESPN’s Soccer Power Index (SPI), the result of the match is a toss-up. Each team is predicted to win 36 percent of the time, with the match ending in a draw in the other 28 percent. For this reason, the outcome of the match will swing the race heavily if either team can pull out a victory.
Chances to Win Premier League
Based on Sunday's result:
Manchester City is currently SPI's favorite to win the league with 64 percent odds compared to 26 percent for Liverpool.
A win by Liverpool would flip-flop the two sides, giving Liverpool the edge at 56 percent and dropping City’s chances to 35 percent. A win by City would make it the massive favorite, jumping its odds to 88 percent and dropping Liverpool’s all the way to 6 percent. A draw Sunday would leave things virtually unchanged for the two sides, while giving Chelsea a slight boost.
It could be a high-scoring match as it features the top two scoring teams in the league. Liverpool has 90 goals in 33 matches and City has 84 in 31 matches. It also has the top three individual scorers in the Premier League in Luis Suarez (29), Daniel Sturridge (20) and Yaya Toure (18). In fact, Suarez’s 29 goals are as many or more than four teams have on the season.
Despite missing Liverpool's first five Premier League matches, Suarez has taken 159 shots, 58 more than any other player in the league. Suarez's 72 shots on goal are 32 more than the second-highest total in the league, which belongs to teammate Sturridge.
While Liverpool's top scorers do so through volume, City's top scorer Toure has been efficient with his opportunities. Toure has scored on 18 of his 25 shots on target (72 percent). No other player in the EPL with at least 10 shots on target has scored on more than 60 percent of those shots. Part of this is because of his accuracy on free kicks, as all four of his free kicks put on target have gone in this season.