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Trending: Newcastle promoted to Prem

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Prem Forecast: Man City now favorites

Sergio Aguero, Manuel Pellegrini and Man City are favored to repeat as champs, according to the latest SPI forecast.
Sergio Aguero, Manuel Pellegrini and Man City are favored to repeat as champs, according to the latest SPI forecast.

Welcome to the first edition of Insider's Premier League Forecaster, an end-of-season table projection fueled by ESPN's Soccer Power Index (SPI), a regression-based algorithm designed to predict soccer matches. SPI simulates the remainder of the season 10,000 times, using the odds of each projected match, with the end result presented in the table below.

(For more information on SPI, see Nate Silver's explainers here, here and here. They're written around the World Cup, but the same system applies.)

Every couple of weeks, I'll take a look at how SPI projects the Premier League playing out from the title race down to the relegation battle, highlighting top storylines, what's changed and what lies ahead.

Here's a look at the latest forecast for all 20 Prem teams along with breakdowns of the title, Champions League and relegation battles. Also featured is the match of the week, focused on which fixture will have the biggest impact on one of the key races.

Latest table projection

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